COVID-19, Flu Comparison, Exponential Spread Explained

[Shuey]

Sent to me by a senior USAF flight surgeon. Best update and explanation I've seen yet of how things work and will probably progress, to include . . . a comparison between COVID-19 and Flu and a great description of “exponential spread”.

Shuey

https://www.kevinmd.com/blog/2020/03/a-covid-19-coronavirus-update-from-concerned-physicians.html?fbclid=IwAR1Dpxp-nM08hsc-Gtt6UtO8lAzLUjml_5SbW9XPuhf5hOzJ3-wRTU2LyuY

 

[Mark]

That's a good source Shuey.

 

[Obo]

I love the fine print at the beginning of the article... aka the word advertisement, unless it's just my adblocker.

"Why are we writing this?


ADVERTISEMENT



The COVID-19 pandemic has reached a point where containment is no longer possible. The COVID-19 threat is real, and rapidly getting worse. Many of you are very nervous; some are unsure of the validity of the information you are reading. As physician leaders, we felt it was important to craft a resource you can rely on as being scientifically accurate and one which contains as much actionable information and guidance as possible..... "

 

[Shuey]

I love the fine print at the beginning of the article... aka the word advertisement, unless it's just my adblocker.

"Why are we writing this?


ADVERTISEMENT



The COVID-19 pandemic has reached a point where containment is no longer possible. The COVID-19 threat is real, and rapidly getting worse. Many of you are very nervous; some are unsure of the validity of the information you are reading. As physician leaders, we felt it was important to craft a resource you can rely on as being scientifically accurate and one which contains as much actionable information and guidance as possible..... "

It's your Ad blocker. The add that just popped in the space just above the word was one for HIV information.
Shuey

 

[Uncle Phil]

I did find it interesting that a good percentage of the doctors were orthopedic specialists not heart and lung doctors.
Interesting information at any rate.

 

[amorley]

Thanks Shuey. A good article.

@paulcb shared this article with us at RockSTOC

It is long and has a lot of detailed information. It is “blame free” and non-political relying heavily on published, public data. It does not bode well for what we shall see here in the US.

It shows that total containment is currently the only effective tool in preventing the spread of the virus. If our leaders will not set the standards for total containment, then we only have the option of self-containment.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

 

[dduelin]

I did find it interesting that a good percentage of the doctors were orthopedic specialists not heart and lung doctors.
Interesting information at any rate.

You haven't lived and almost died until you get an infection with a prosthetic medical device common to orthopods. The bad guys go right to the foreign objects. One of those bugs put my wife in ICU for 89 days the first time and in ICU and on a ventilator for a month the second time. Infection is infection no matter the specialty.

 

[Uncle Phil]

You haven't lived and almost died until you get an infection with a prosthetic medical device common to orthopods. The bad guys go right to the foreign objects. One of those bugs put my wife in ICU for 89 days the first time and in ICU and on a ventilator for a month the second time. Infection is infection no matter the specialty.

Well, I've had a little 'experience' with a prosthetic medical device or two ....

I'm not a medical doctor, but I did sleep in a Holiday Inn Express once.
Viral 'infestations' (like Covid) usually don't respond to antibiotics, but replacement joint infections usually do.
That's why I have to take antibiotics before I have most any medical procedure that has potential abrasion - including teeth cleaning.
I've been walking on 'metal' for almost 9 years.

 

[Larry Fine]

I have an after-market hip. What are symptoms of infection?

 

[Uncle Phil]

One simple sign is usually a lot of 'heat' like most infections, tenderness and pain.
If a replacement gets infected (and they do tend to 'draw' infections), they sometimes have to remove the implant, get rid of the infection and then 'reinstall' - not a pleasant procedure to say the least!
If you do an annual health checkup, normally infections should show up in your blood work.
But then again, I'm not a doctor though I have slept at a Holiday Inn Express - and had 15 orthopedic surgeries.

 

[Al st1100]

You haven't lived and almost died until you get an infection with a prosthetic medical device common to orthopods. The bad guys go right to the foreign objects. One of those bugs put my wife in ICU for 89 days the first time and in ICU and on a ventilator for a month the second time. Infection is infection no matter the specialty.

I hear you but when you almost die due to an antibiotic and it take the doctors a week to make their best guess thats scary! long story short read the fire print on the last of 3 pages of possible side effects, Liver failure, central nervous system damage. My wife had a root canal done and was given Cypro, shortened name. a few days later felt strange could not describe it and went to ER. Took blood test and was told to continue tanking antibiotics and call your doctor in the morning. Called doctor and he said he will look at tests and call back. Within a half hour called back, sent email with the blood test and said go the the trauma 1 hospital with the blood test. In triage the nurse took one look at the tests and said we are putting you in a room. After day 5 they were talking about a liver transplant but being she has a rare blood type that could be a problem. At day 7 her blood work numbers were starting to look better and 4 days later she was released. Their best guess was that she is allergic to the antibiotic that she had taken before with out any problem but doctors say that can happen

 

[Uncle Phil]

That's the reason it's called 'practicing medicine' ...

 

[dduelin]

Well, I've had a little 'experience' with a prosthetic medical device or two ....

I'm not a medical doctor, but I did sleep in a Holiday Inn Express once.
Viral 'infestations' (like Covid) usually don't respond to antibiotics, but replacement joint infections usually do.
That's why I have to take antibiotics before I have most any medical procedure that has potential abrasion - including teeth cleaning.
I've been walking on 'metal' for almost 9 years.

My reply was aimed more at no matter the specialty whether it be orthopedic or heart/lung, doctors can be familiar with the ramifications of overwhelming our ability to provide the intensive care that serious cases of Covid-19 is proving require and trying to get people to wake up.......... that actions taken today could save lives in a few weeks.

Your comment was read as orthopedic doctors' opinion somehow carries less weight than a cardiac or pulmonary doctor's would. I'm sorry if I read into it something that wasn't there.

 

[Uncle Phil]

Due to the nature of the disease, I'm really interested in what pulmonary doctors and virologists have to say since it's their wheelhouse that will have to deal with it and be overwhelmed. I am 'painfully' and 'frequently' aware of the expertise of the ortho docs. Just as I know a little bit about BMW motorcycles, I know a lot more about ST1100s. So my 'view' and level of 'expertise' on one versus the other is a matter of lots of experience - which is what counts when the chips are down.

 

[SMSW]

Due to the nature of the disease, I'm really interested in what pulmonary doctors and virologists have to say since it's their wheelhouse that will have to deal with it and be overwhelmed. I am 'painfully' and 'frequently' aware of the expertise of the ortho docs. Just as I know a little bit about BMW motorcycles, I know a lot more about ST1100s. So my 'view' and level of 'expertise' on one versus the other is a matter of lots of experience - which is what counts when the chips are down.

Sorry Phil, all the pulmoary, virologists and infectious disease guys are busy. Please ask this q again in a few months. (what's the emoticom for tongue-in-cheek?)

 

[amorley]

Due to the nature of the disease, I'm really interested in what pulmonary doctors and virologists have to say since it's their wheelhouse that will have to deal with it and be overwhelmed. I am 'painfully' and 'frequently' aware of the expertise of the ortho docs. Just as I know a little bit about BMW motorcycles, I know a lot more about ST1100s. So my 'view' and level of 'expertise' on one versus the other is a matter of lots of experience - which is what counts when the chips are down.

My understanding is that there is no cure for Covid-19 other than our own natural immune system. There is an anti-viral drug developed to treat Ebola that may work but it has to go through trials.

John Hopkins University of Medicine is reporting that 78,085 people have recovered out of the total confirmed cases of 181,200 as of 4:14pm CT on 3/16/2020. The growth of cases outside China is now exponential.

The only treatment for the very sick is to put them on a ventilator to help them breath. From the report I shared earlier, you can note that they die on average 17 days after first symptoms appear, which is on average, 12 days after they are first infected.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

All reports from credible sources also say that there is still a lot we do not know about this virus.

 

[Uncle Phil]

And I understand the need for caution.
If I had a wife at home with a compromised immune system, I wouldn't go anywhere that was not absolutely necessary.
And if I did, I would take a complete shower with antibiotic soap and leave my 'exodus' clothes out in the garage before I went near her.

My dad spent the last 10 weeks of his life in ICU on a ventilator so I am more aware of those things that I ever wanted to be.
I've been 'ventilated' a time or two myself (about 20 times if my count is correct ) - and woke up one time when they pulled the hose out ...

I'm still curious to hear from pulmonary docs and cardiac docs as to what they are recommending.
In my too lengthy personal medical adventures, I like to talk to the best and most experienced ones I can find for the condition I have or am facing.
From what I've seen, those with respiratory and cardiac problems are the ones at risk - and would be at risk for most stuff.
It is interesting to me that this thing is more like pneumonia (which I have had and almost died from) than the flu.
Nothing like the feeling of trying to breath 'under water'!
Before it is over with and before they get a vaccine released, it will probably mutate and render the vaccine useless.

 

[drrod]

As a doctor in Italy said recently (and I paraphrase) ".....we don't have specialists anymore. All we have is everyone working 24/7 trying to keep people alive......"
Don't lose sight of the fact that all specialists have to become a general practitioner first.
To go with the motorcycle analogy......a person may be an ST1100 specialist but they can still change the oil of a BMW. And do it well.

 

[Uncle Phil]

To go with the motorcycle analogy......a person may be an ST1100 specialist but they can still change the oil of a BMW. And do it well.

But I'm not the feller for the best advice on how to rebuild the engine on a BMW ...
This issue appears to be an 'engine rebuild' rather than an 'oil change'.

 

[drrod]

"....This issue appears to be an 'engine rebuild' rather than an 'oil change'....."

If it is life and death that I get an engine rebuilt immediately , I will take whoever knows about engines in general, rather than wait for a "certified technician" to become available.