Covid 19.

[the Ferret]

I have a rally booked for September I'm a little concerned about. I am in the group that doesn't think it's a hoax and that does think there will be a second wave as cities open up. If numbers do rise whether it's from testing or not, I will probably cancel the Sept rally.

Had a scheduled tele-visit with my arthritis doctor yesterday morning and she said this is a weird virus, that doesn't seem to be nullified by summer heat like most influenza's, so she's concerned this is going to keep going strong into next winter. She had no idea when she would be seeing patients "in office" again.

Have my yearly physical scheduled with my primary doctor for next Tuesday. Been scheduled since last year. Going to be another tele-visit I'm certain. Not sure how that is going to work out since he can't look in my ears, bang on me with the little rubber hammer and give me the rubber glove test over the phone.

 

[Daboo]

I'll bet you'll miss the rubber glove moment the most. My primary care doctor says to go find my "happy place".

One of my real concerns, is where this is going outside the medical realm. I'm thinking in terms of two areas. Socialism and government surveillance.

The bills have given checks that were needed to people. Will the checks start becoming large enough and go to enough people that some (or many) will say, "Why would I want to go back to work?" And once an "entitlement" is given, it is never taken away.

The other concern I have is the contact tracing. Washington state will reopen restaurants, but only if there's a record of who was there and how to contact them. I believe some of the tech giants are developing ways to track you wherever you go and who you meet. The coronavirus is a good excuse to allow that. But like the "entitlements"...once it gets started, how do you turn it off? The book 1984 seemed so far in the future, but I think the future could be now.

Chris

 

[ST Gui]

You can't keep people closed in forever.

I'm reasonably sure that's not anybody's intention. The longer anybody goes without infection the greater their willingness to assume they can be out and about safely. Not everybody has it and not everybody will get it. Well maybe everybody or most everybody will if and until there's a vaccine. I assume there will be though we haven't cured the common cold yet.

I don't believe lifting the SIP protocol and trusting everyone to follow medical guidelines is a viable answer. But it would allow us to find hot spots and start this all over again.

As far as numbers are concerned there is are deaths due to COVID / death rate / and infection rate. All of these are important and important to understand the differences.

It's clear to me this is no hoax regardless of who may be taking financial gain from it. It's obvious from history what a pandemic can do to a society and by extension an economy. How to protect one without sacrificing the other?

I don't have an answer. I seriously don't trust people who 'know' they do. We're still learning how to navigate saving both. Everyone says "people die from the flu so why all the "hype" with COVID". Yeah a lot of people die from various strains of flu every year. Some can't be saved once infected but there's a pretty good handle on controlling infection. We don't have that with COVID. I believe we will but have no idea when.

There are places where there is no COVID. People could be out cavorting and frolicking and assembling not only believing they're safe but actually being safe. Shine a black light or use a Geiger counter or radiation badge or swab it down for COVID DNA (not RNA) or whatever tech to locate a place and I'm there.

Until then I'm fine with drastically reducing any interaction with anybody especially if they appear not to be following any safety guidelines whether they affect them or I. Walks are ok and so is shopping for food. As restrictions lift I'll see what results. Mind how you go.

 

[Daboo]

Well maybe everybody or most everybody will if and until there's a vaccine. I assume there will be though we haven't cured the common cold yet...

I still remember when I was in the USAF and went to the hospital where I was diagnosed with the flu. And FWIW, in the military, you HAVE to get the yearly flu vaccine. No choice about the matter. So you're in a pool of people that all are vaccinated.

So I asked the good doctor why I had the flu if I was vaccinated. His reply was that this was a new version of the flu that he had just read about last week, and which wasn't in the vaccine that I had received.

The moral of the story...don't count on a vaccine. If your number is up, it is up. Like they used to say in all the old Western movies when the bad guy got his comeuppance, "prepare to meet your maker".

Chris

 

[drrod]

Then there's the case of Sweden. Life continued pretty much as normal. They just locked down the highly vulnerable people and practiced social distancing. Their death rate is nowhere near what other countries have reached. Hmm... That makes me wonder and think.

Using the John Hopkins data for deaths and google to determine population numbers, as of this afternoon: eg. Sweden 3,460 deaths/population of 10.23 million.
Sweden - 0.0346% of the population has died due to Covid
US - 0.0265% of the population has died due to Covid.
Canada - 0.0144 % of the population has died due to Covid
Finland/Norway - 0.0043% of their populations have died due to Covid

Sweden's methodology has resulted in a larger per capita death rate than the other countries I listed. But, It is certainly lower than that in Italy (0.052%) and Spain(0.057%).

Here is a pretty down to earth description of what is, and has, been done in Sweden.

Lessons from Kronavirus: Is Sweden’s anti-lockdown approach more strategic than it seems? - Macleans.ca

Scott Young: Sweden's unorthodox strategy has been rightly criticized, but it's too early to condemn an approach that's focused on the long game and public trust

www.macleans.ca

If the US had the same as Sweden's rate, that would mean that an additional 30,000 people would have died. If the US had the same rate as Canada it would mean that there would have been some 37,000 fewer deaths. If Finland/Norway rate, then there would have been 70,000 fewer deaths



These are obviously very coarse calculations due to many factors, not the least of which is how deaths are recorded and healthcare differences, but they do show, IMO, how the different way things were handled and results. What is the "economy" worth? That is a question that each of us should answer, even if only to ourselves. One would probably get different answers depending on what part of the country you asked and certainly if you asked those who lost loved ones compared to those who didn't.

How the economies are going to turn out is going to have to wait, for quite a while, before it can be truly assessed. It will take years, if not generations, for things to settle down, if for no other reason than the massive sovereign debt that has been incurred.

 

[ST Gui]

The moral of the story...don't count on a vaccine.

That applies to any medical procedure. Yet people still have heart surgery hip replacements tonsillectomies etc. So did you swear off getting vaccinated because of that data point?

"Don't count on..." applies to just about everything not just death and taxes. Don't count on dying tomorrow from an airplane crashing into your abode. Unlikely but it could happen. Or maybe you might get smallpox. Sure it's been eradicated but you never really know right? Or injured or killed riding your bike. There's still polio.

The point is there was a vaccine for the previous version of flu and I bet if you asked that good doctor now (assuming he hasn't retired and/or gone on to private practice whatever) there is currently a vaccine now for the flu you had then and it probably came in reasonably short order. You got it but was the base locked down?

Years from now there still may be people dying from COVID. Maybe it'll be COVID22. But I'm an optimist and am counting on the rate of infection to be much lower.

 

[Daboo]

...So did you swear off getting vaccinated because of that data point?

... You got it but was the base locked down?

To answer the first question, I have two words to explain it all. "Court Martial" At least an Article 15, which is the step below that. You didn't, and still don't, get a choice about getting your shots. It never occurred to me to do more than shrug about it.

To answer the second question, "are you kidding"?

Chris

 

[ST Gui]

The UCMJ can be a harsh mistress.

 

[Oldbikefixr]

I have no problem with people who have the right to be out and practicing safety precautions. The problems only arise when people adjust "common sense" to suit their whims. There is no standard for common sense. If it was common everybody would have it - not just everybody thinking they do. When in Rome I do as the Roman Constabulary and Guardia. If I don't want to - I don't go to Rome.

We have a high % of people are behaving as though the 'get back out, with restrictions' condition is the same as an all clear. No masks, no wipes, just interact as usual. Even our gangbangers have resumed their Sunday morning shootings.

 

[Obo]

I have a rally booked for September I'm a little concerned about. I am in the group that doesn't think it's a hoax and that does think there will be a second wave as cities open up. If numbers do rise whether it's from testing or not, I will probably cancel the Sept rally.

Had a scheduled tele-visit with my arthritis doctor yesterday morning and she said this is a weird virus, that doesn't seem to be nullified by summer heat like most influenza's, so she's concerned this is going to keep going strong into next winter. She had no idea when she would be seeing patients "in office" again.

Have my yearly physical scheduled with my primary doctor for next Tuesday. Been scheduled since last year. Going to be another tele-visit I'm certain. Not sure how that is going to work out since he can't look in my ears, bang on me with the little rubber hammer and give me the rubber glove test over the phone.

He'll have you bang your own knee and email photos of your ears and you with your finger up your butt.

 

[spiderman302]

she said this is a weird virus, that doesn't seem to be nullified by summer heat like most influenza's,

Could it be that everyone is staying inside their air conditioned homes and not going out into the summer heat, that would kill the virus......

Maybe they need to tell everyone to turn OFF the AC and sweat out the heat for a few days, or go out into the back yard and enjoy the sun........

 

[fnmag]

Could it be that everyone is staying inside their air conditioned homes and not going out into the summer heat, that would kill the virus......

Maybe they need to tell everyone to turn OFF the AC and sweat out the heat for a few days, or go out into the back yard and enjoy the sun........

Good suggestion.