I don't really care if it reduces the accident rate or not. I care about the legislative reaction and enforcement that requires any technology.
Case in point: I had to sell a very nice 2007 pickup truck, that had been immaculately maintained, and in perfect condition. Why? Because I could no longer register it in my State. Why? Because I had a "check engine light" on on the dash. The truck had a small electrical gremlin, the computer reported "low fuel pressure", even thought it wasn't (verified many different ways) The vehicle drove normally, emissions were normal, etc. I spent a lot of time and money replacing parts and taking it to shops to try and correct it. But I was forced to sell it to someone out-of-State, and at a considerable loss. Due to the way the laws are written, I got a royal screwing. And I'm not the only one. People have had to scrap vehicles because the silly TPMS system was unrepairable.
What does this have to do with ABS? Well, if the EU is requiring it on motorcycles, you can assume that functioning ABS will be a requirement come safety inspection time. So how long will it be before the cost of replacing a bad ABS unit is so high that the bike is scrap? Or when the required part is simply not available anymore? Scrap the machine? Seems entirely absurd.
I'm quite sure someone will point out that ABS has been generally reliable, and even the 20+yr old ST's are still going strong. Yes, I realize that, but in my State at least, motorcycle inspection has not reached that level. Yet. Its quite common to "fix" BMW's by routing around that electronic braking system they tried. I could also "fix" any ST by simply removing the parts and routing around. Under increased scrutiny, that "fix" wouldn't be legal, even though its safe.
Now some will say no problem, just buy a new vehicle! Yeah, if that was the case, I wouldn't be riding, as wouldn't a lot of other people. Today's whizbang technology is wonderful, but it ain't cheap. And in 10+years when this stuff gets down to my price point, will it be reliable? Maybe. Will it still be able to be registered and ridden? That remains to be seen. Depends on what the State decides to do in the future. But considering Govt's propensity to increase its reach in the name of our "safety", I'm not too optimistic.
I can't wait to see what happens when the sensors in the mirrors on new cars, that inform the driver of a vehicle in the "blind spot" (because the driver is too lazy to turn their damned head) start crapping out or are no longer available. Will that trigger an inspection fail? If there's light on the dash for it, in my State it will, and a trip to the scrapyard over a piece of entirely superfluous equipment.
So lets define it at the "pre-ridiculous" and "post-ridiculous" eras. I have the skillset to keep old things running, almost indefinitely, if built in the "pre-ridiculous" era, like the ST1100's. Heck, any machinery built prior to can-bus systems, say 2003 or so and earlier. So likely I'm good until they nail the lid on. But what about the future of motorcycling? Used to be that starter bike could be had cheap and easy. Still is that way. But moving forward, if the cost to keep older machines increases and the only alternative is new, there will be less motorcyclists for sure.
And with less motorcycles, that'll be much "safer", won't it....
RT