Hurricane Idalia

[W0QNX]

OK it's still just a tropical storm right now but by tomorrow morning it will be Hurricane Idalia. Since I've already been texted by a few concerned folks I thought I might as well start a thread.

It's not going to be anywhere close to Pensacola. It's supposed to be down in the big bend area of Florida, 200 miles east of here. So happens I was just down that way August 4th. I didn't take many pictures but I'll guess this spot will be in the news real quick, Cedar Key. Right in the big bend area.

First picture is at Cedar Key airport right at the runway end, at the Gulf. That's another separate island out in the view "offshore. The airport is listed as elevation 11 feet but that must be at super high tide. It is right on the Gulf of Mexico shoreline, an island even. The other picture is just a mile inland, along the only road to the Cedar Key area. Those are Rosette Spoonbills searching for their lunch in the water.

Good luck to all in the area.

 

[dduelin]

My BIL has a place in Cedar Key a 1/4 mile from the airport. It's built on pilings that go all the way up to the second story roof trusses. It has been through many tropical storm systems.

 

[core-aggie]

Hurricanes and storms are unpredictable... the weather folks have a great job - they can be wrong 90% of the time and still keep their job.

All predictions for Harvey had it arriving in Corpus Christi TX. It arrived thereabouts, then turned around and back into the Gulf and intensified, turned eastward, then came up into the Galveston and Houston area for days, and dumped a boatload of water.

No one prodicted that. Neither did we. Needless to say, we evacuated just in time - our home got six foot of water for about three days - lost everything. That home doesn't exist anymore. Harvey is not the only storm with the same outcome, esp Florida.

The point is, don't rely on 3-5 day forecasts. Be prepared. Be ready for changes and the unexpected.

 

[rjs987]

@WØQNX, You'll have to quick ride back there and grab some more pictures before the landscape changes on Wednesday.

 

[Ron]

The 10:00 update has the path moved a little to the north, slightly north of Cedar Key.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TAMMY

 

[Andrew Shadow]

...... the weather folks have a great job - they can be wrong 90% of the time and still keep their job.

My parents always told me to be a Priest or a weatherman because they are the only two jobs where you can be wrong all of the time and not get fired.

 

[dduelin]

Hurricanes and storms are unpredictable... the weather folks have a great job - they can be wrong 90% of the time and still keep their job.

All predictions for Harvey had it arriving in Corpus Christi TX. It arrived thereabouts, then turned around and back into the Gulf and intensified, turned eastward, then came up into the Galveston and Houston area for days, and dumped a boatload of water.

No one prodicted that. Neither did we. Needless to say, we evacuated just in time - our home got six foot of water for about three days - lost everything. That home doesn't exist anymore. Harvey is not the only storm with the same outcome, esp Florida.

The point is, don't rely on 3-5 day forecasts. Be prepared. Be ready for changes and the unexpected.

I agree about paying attention during the days before landfall and be ready to change plans. Living in FL 67 years and owning boats for 40 of those years keep me on perpetual tropical storm alert. I'm watching them when they are just tropical low pressure systems or tropical waves just being mentioned in the NWS tropical weather outlook. The forecast for Harvey several days before landfall did actually warn that the steering currents were weak and that the storm would meander about dumping heavy rainfall on South or Southeast TX for days. The forecast path to landfall 30 miles from Corpus Christie was quite accurate and the forecasts did warn that the path beyond landfall was uncertain and could not be predicted. Harvey did what was predicted within the limits of forecasting in 2015. As always part of the problem was complacency. No major tropical storm had hit South TX for 45 years before Harvey and huge areas had been developed in those 45 years, often with little attention paid to drainage and infrastructure protection. Florida is the same way with millions of residents living in areas not heavily developed since the last big one. If there is anything good about Idalia's predicted path is that the Big Bend is Florida's "UnCoast" with relatively light population density on the coast and inland.

 

[JackinFL]

We live south of the predicted path but we're prepared anyway. We start gathering up stuff when the first storms start forming in the beginning of the season and we just keep them topped off until the season is over. That keeps us from having to deal with the rush that will happen at the last minute every time.
Unfortunately our son's girlfriend lives in Savannah, Ga, which is right in the track but luckily Idalia is supposed to be much weaker by the time it get there.

 

[VetteJim]

Good luck all you Florida people. Hope it's not too bad.

 

[okckeith]

Glad you are not in the path Raymond. I hope everybody stays save.