Has anyone here on the forum caught the Coronavirus yet?

[ReSTored]

On Friday, the government published a directive that all people arriving from abroad were obliged to self-quarantine for 14 days.

The hotel is not too bad a place to be stuck in, but it's still a jail, if you know what I mean. On the bright side of things, the food is good, the staff are very gracious, there is a spa downstairs and a large pool and ocean to swim in. Internet is free and fast.

Of greater concern to me is what things will be like once my quarantine period is up. All ferries in and out of the country are cancelled until at least April 4, and customs rules forbid me to leave the motorcycle behind when I leave the country..

I think you're in a Catch 22 type of situation. Even if allowed to exit Tunisia any country you go to may well require you to self isolate again for a 2 week period, and certainly when you return to Canada from Italy you'll be in isolation again for 2 weeks.

I'm not even certain how this isolation process is supposed to work. Imagine if you're in isolation with 20 people and 1 person has the virus, but no symptoms. This person passes the virus to you on day 12, then on day 14 you are probably still feeling OK and are free go on your merry way and a couple of days later you are sick .........

 

[SMSW]

Of greater concern to me is what things will be like once my quarantine period is up. All ferries in and out of the country are cancelled until at least April 4, and customs rules forbid me to leave the motorcycle behind when I leave the country.

It is interesting how we look at our freedom. There are probably a few hundred thousand criminals who would call your situation paradise, but all of us agree with you - it is indeed a prison.

I was told last night by a friend in Montreal that Canada is closing its borders soon. I said that the US has effectively done so but citizens abroad are returning. She told me this was especially important for snowbirds - folks who winter in Florida but live in Canada and some of her friends were scrambling to get home before the door slams shut. I don't know any more than that - no dates/duration/etc.

 

[Bush]

Why are they telling me to disinfect my phone? I’m the only one that uses it, and it stays in my pocket.

When you are out and about, do you handle/use your phone, while also touching any other surfaces? There's your answer.

 

[Jeff F]

I'm not even certain how this isolation process is supposed to work. Imagine if you're in isolation with 20 people and 1 person has the virus, but no symptoms. This person passes the virus to you on day 12, then on day 14 you are probably still feeling OK and are free go on your merry way and a couple of days later you are sick .........

As I understand it ... Being symptomatic isn't what determines whether you have been infected, or not. A negative test at the 14 day mark is required to leave quarantine.

 

[Bush]

I was told last night by a friend in Montreal that Canada is closing its borders soon.

This is false - so far. Canadians are being told to return home ASAP because they may not be able to find a flight back in a few days. Airlines are cutting way back on flights due to diminished need. Canada is restricting flights from any foreign country to certain airports too.

 

[CYYJ]

Why are they telling me to disinfect my phone? I’m the only one that uses it, and it stays in my pocket.

Yeah, exactly. I can't figure that one out either.

All I can think of to justify cleaning the phone is that we hold the phone with our hands (which come in contact with all sorts of stuff), then put the phone up against our face. But I don't think in normal use the phone ever touches our mouth, eyes, or other mucous membranes.

Michael

 

[ReSTored]

As I understand it ... Being symptomatic isn't what determines whether you have been infected, or not. A negative test at the 14 day mark is required to leave quarantine.

I think at this point tests are only administered to people with specific symptoms and not to everyone who is in an isolation group. Whatever the process is I think that there is lots of wiggle room for people who may have been exposed to pass the virus on to others. Not to say isolation isn't effective, it will probably slow down the transmission rate or flatten the curve as they are saying.

 

[RaYzerman]

Yeah, exactly. I can't figure that one out either.

All I can think of to justify cleaning the phone is that we hold the phone with our hands (which come in contact with all sorts of stuff), then put the phone up against our face. But I don't think in normal use the phone ever touches our mouth, eyes, or other mucous membranes.

Michael

The idea is the virus can live longer on a phone surface and anywhere near where you can breathe it in isn't good. But, if you're sure you've never been anywhere in public to pick the virus up, or nobody like the mailman in contact with you, no need. I have a suede cover on my phone, I'm sure it can harbour lots of little things.... switching it out to a silicone one today I have in my stash.

 

[Andrew Shadow]

All ferries in and out of the country are cancelled until at least April 4, and customs rules forbid me to leave the motorcycle behind when I leave the country.

Considering the circumstances, I would be inclined to attempt to contact some Tunisian government immigration/customs agency and inquire about the possibility of an exception to that rule. Maybe they want to get rid of as many foreign nationals as they can- less for them to manage and worry about.
If you were to offer a guarantee of some sort of their choosing, a promise to return to pick up the vehicle so-to-speak, is there any possibility that they would allow you to leave?
Can't hurt to ask as they say.

I know nothing about Tunisia and how their government agencies operate however, so I don't even know if this is a stupid suggestion or not. It is just a thought that came to mind when I read about your situation. I would much rather be back home in Canada if I could possibly make that happen. Even once your quarantine is over the options of going anywhere seem to be diminishing daily. Everyday more travel options are being restricted around the world. I would think that getting back home while there is still a possibility is worth considering as no one knows how long anyone will end up being stuck anywhere. Wuhan has been locked down since January 23rd, Italy for several weeks now. Are the governments of other countries going to decide that they need to impose similar restrictions for similar lengths of time? I don't think anyone can hazard a guess at the moment. While your location is desirable, I would have concerns about being stuck there for an unknown and indefinite period.

I doubt that, unless you are in some immediate danger, Foreign Affairs Canada will be of any assistance in getting you home. I'm pretty sure that they have much more pressing concerns than a lone Canadian, who is not in any imminent danger, "stuck" in a luxury hotel with all of the luxuriousness all to himself.

Good luck, be safe and keep us posted.

 

[Andrew Shadow]

Coincidentally there was a report about the bacteria that lurks on cell phones on TV just last night. Cell phones routinely test as badly as keyboards, toilet seats, toilet stall latches, etc., for having live microbes of various types on them. Anything that gets on to your hands from anything that you have touched can be transferred to your cell phone which you then put against your face. This puts the microbes in close enough proximity to a point of entry- eyes, nose, mouth. Doesn't matter whether anyone else has used your phone or not. What matters is what have you touched and who touched it before you and what did they have on their hands.

The analogy was that most people would be disgusted at the thought of touching the public toilet stall latch and then touching their face before washing their hands. Putting a cell phone to your face can be surprisingly similar. Unless you are not going to use your phone it is a good idea to disinfect it, especially if you have been in a crowded public area touching multiple common surfaces.

 

[drrod]

"....Only 32 cases in the entire state. At that rate, you’re more likely to see a 2-headed calf, than meet someone with the virus.
Why are they telling me to disinfect my phone? I’m the only one that uses it, and it stays in my pocket..... "

There have only been 32 cases detected but they are only testing people with overt signs. 32 cases is the tip of the iceberg. As for your phone, it is like touching your face. It comes in contact with many surfaces when you set it down or via your hands. You may not realize just how many , just as most don't realize they touch their face many times per hour. Of course that is speaking of the "average". You may be the exception.

 

[dduelin]

I haven’t left the house in over a week, which is typical for me, if the weather isn’t fit for a ride. But on my last trip to town for shopping and a haircut, I’m pretty sure I acquired a case of Type A Flu. Very slight fever, headache, and aching all over. Couple of days later, and I’m fine. Same thing happened last year, and Flu was verified by lab, although I had received the shot.

Only 32 cases in the entire state. At that rate, you’re more likely to see a 2-headed calf, than meet someone with the virus.

Why are they telling me to disinfect my phone? I’m the only one that uses it, and it stays in my pocket.

John

1 case in TN three days ago, 18 cases in TN two days ago, 32 cases 21 hours ago.

This is pretty much following the history of Covid-19 as we know it. This is an exponential jump in TN infections. We think infected persons do not show symptoms for 14-17 days. In this time they infect about 2 other people. One begats 2.....18 begats 36..... 72 and so on.

What we do today will affect the lives of many people in just a few days. Most will survive Covid-19 but 1 to 5% will not.

We have the information now so we don't have to be like South Korea, Iran, Italy, France and now Spain.

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now

Politicians and Business Leaders: What Should You Do and When?

medium.com

 

[drrod]

We have the information now so we don't have to be like South Korea, Iran, Italy, France and now Spain.

I am not so sure that having that information, we should not learn from it and use rapid, strict isolation as a main means of dealing with it. There is little doubt that it is going to go through all the populations of the world. Mitigating its severity, and its impact on the healthcare systems, and giving those systems time to gear up, is going to be the best strategy going forward.

 

[Larry Fine]

. . . they may not be able to find a flight back in a few days. Airlines are cutting way back on flights due to diminished need.

Why does that seem to be a contradiction? If they can't find a flight, there's a need.

Kinda like "Nobody goes there anymore because it's too crowded."

 

[drrod]

Why does that seem to be a contradiction? If they can't find a flight, there's a need.

Kinda like "Nobody goes there anymore because it's too crowded."

Maybe the airlines can't justify flying nearly empty planes one way??

 

[Daboo]

Why does that seem to be a contradiction? If they can't find a flight, there's a need.

Kinda like "Nobody goes there anymore because it's too crowded."

There's a cost to flying the airplane. At some point, you change your schedule because you can't keep hemorrhaging money.

In normal times, you might find a flight mostly empty flying on the last flight of the day. The reason is that they have to position the airplane for its flight in the morning. My oldest daughter flew from France to Seattle a week or so ago. I don't know what plane she was on, but it was a wide-body about the size of a 777. It had about five people on board. Our younger daughter flew to San Mateo and her plane had only a couple people on it.

Chris

 

[CYYJ]

Considering the circumstances, I would be inclined to attempt to contact some Tunisian government immigration/customs agency and inquire about the possibility of an exception to that rule.

Hi Andrew:

A good thought, but this is Africa - things just don't work like that here. I lived and worked in Africa for many years, and it's just impossible to get an exception made to a rule unless the approval comes from a government Minister.

In any case, I'm not too concerned - I might be stuck here for a month or two, but the cost of living is very low, it's a thinly-populated country, and the weather is nice.

My personal guess is that all the onerous restrictions that various governments around the world are imposing right now will peak in about two weeks' time and then be relaxed, because by then, the general population (everywhere) will be fed up with the shutdowns and will want to get back to normal daily activities, virus or no virus.

I am also guessing that the mortality rate from this virus will eventually be discovered to be 1% or less, simply because once the dust has settled, many people will be found to have been exposed to the virus but been asymptomatic, or have only suffered mild flu-like symptoms. Right now, the mortality rate appears to be high because only people who have presented with symptoms or presented with a dodgy travel history have been tested. The mortality numbers from Italy should be disregarded because Italy has the oldest population in Europe - over a quarter of the population is above age 65. That's certainly not the case in lesser-developed countries, or (I think) in North America or the rest of Europe.

Michael

 

[ad.hom]

will peak in about two weeks' time and then be relaxed

That's what I'm hoping, more or less. Heck, they can take two months.

July, I'm in Hammamet & will happily help restore the economy.

 

[shady28]

...

I am also guessing that the mortality rate from this virus will eventually be discovered to be 1% or less, simply because once the dust has settled, many people will be found to have been exposed to the virus but been asymptomatic, or have only suffered mild flu-like symptoms. Right now, the mortality rate appears to be high because only people who have presented with symptoms or presented with a dodgy travel history have been tested. The mortality numbers from Italy should be disregarded because Italy has the oldest population in Europe - over a quarter of the population is above age 65. That's certainly not the case in lesser-developed countries, or (I think) in North America or the rest of Europe.

Michael

I think S. Korea, which is the only place I know of that did extensive random testing, found the infection death rate to be 0.7%, as opposed to the widely published case death rate (which means you seek medical attention to be counted) of ~3%.

For comparison to the Flu, 2017-2018 was one of the worst recent Flu seasons in the USA. Estimated that 45M contracted the Flu, 21M medical visits, and 61,000 died.
That comes out to 0.14% infection death rate and a .29% case death rate.

Using those numbers comparing to the 0.7% S. Korean infection death rate & 3% case death rate that is widely cited, COVID-19 seems to be 5x more deadly than the flu for anyone who gets exposed and gets the virus (symptomatic or not) and 33X more deadly for those that get sick enough to see a doctor.

If those numbers are correct, they may well kill more people indirectly with these draconian measures than the virus would ever kill.

Source - chart at the bottom of this page: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

 

[ibike2havefun]

61,000 flu deaths and not a shred of the hysteria we are seeing now.