How Harley-Davidson Killed Itself by FortNine
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I don't see HD making a comeback.
I find it interesting that at 14:11 in the upper left, HD is advertising a Pan America due out in 2021.
I find it interesting that at 14:11 in the upper left, HD is advertising a Pan America due out in 2021.
CYYJ
Michael
That's fascinating. Interesting to see that it was produced by a Canadian company - I'm not sure any American would be willing to risk their life making a video like that. 
They do make a good point about the generation that embraced H-D motorcycles aging out of riding, and the following generation being unwilling to be associated with what their parents bought & rode.
Michael
They do make a good point about the generation that embraced H-D motorcycles aging out of riding, and the following generation being unwilling to be associated with what their parents bought & rode.
Michael
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Yup, I saw this earlier and it sure isn’t a happy story. No other brand attracts more lovers and more haters than Harley Davidson and I must admit that at various times, I have fallen into both camps. I used to find their bikes interesting and alluring but more recently, I find them over-priced and under-built. Sadly, they just cannot seem to find their way through to modern times. I have ridden a couple of Harleys (one old bike from the ‘70s and more recently, a spanking brand new 2019 model) and I found them both to be slow and cumbersome with weak brakes and instruments that were hard read due to too small numbers and being positioned too far away. I also found the riding position to be diabolically uncomfortable and the engine noise to be very tiresome.
The video by Ryan F9 tells the story pretty well in my view and I freely acknowledge that it may annoy some folks and I regret that.
It is, however, hard to argue with history and numbers, and the history of the numbers. America believes in the free market and the way that works is...”adapt or die”.
Pete
The video by Ryan F9 tells the story pretty well in my view and I freely acknowledge that it may annoy some folks and I regret that.
It is, however, hard to argue with history and numbers, and the history of the numbers. America believes in the free market and the way that works is...”adapt or die”.
Pete
I've seen a lot of younger guys (20's-30's) on Harleys. As long as there are bars and poker runs, there'll be Harleys. Every time they come out with a non-traditional Harley, their faithful poo-pah it. A few years later it drops out of the show room. A generalization is they created their killer. Whether or not they die is the question.
Every time they come out with a non-traditional Harley, their faithful poo-pah it. A few years later it drops out of the show room. A generalization is they created their killer. Whether or not they die is the question.
That guy never ceases to amaze me with his intellect, humor, delivery, production, research, and deep insight. Another great installment for FortNine.
ReSTored
Site Supporter
I always enjoy Ryan's videos. I think the next 10 years will be pretty pivotal for HD. Aging base of riders, changing tastes, challenging economy and, in particular, premium pricing will mean a steady decline in sales. Almost a question of how long they can hang on.
Look what happened to the ST1300. Great bike, devoted and passionate following, but 10+ years of zero improvements, no new model, people just moved on to other bikes in the market and Honda abandoned the ST niche. Or maybe the new GL/ST1800 was intended to combine 2 segments of the market, who really knows what Honda was thinking on this.
Look what happened to the ST1300. Great bike, devoted and passionate following, but 10+ years of zero improvements, no new model, people just moved on to other bikes in the market and Honda abandoned the ST niche. Or maybe the new GL/ST1800 was intended to combine 2 segments of the market, who really knows what Honda was thinking on this.
larryg
Site Supporter
Another interesting vid from Fortnine, and I agree with most of his points,
BUT, I still see more HDs on the road than any other bikes...
BUT, I still see more HDs on the road than any other bikes...
Just as an aside, the museum that he is in ( Dreamcycle ) is amazing. Small private owned, with some unbelievable bikes. My wife and I had our picture taken on a Italian bike and side car, the brand escapes me right now, that is the only surviving model left in the world. The diversity of types and models is overwhelming. Absolutely worth visiting if you are traveling along the TransCanada highway toward eastern B.C. The owner/operator/restorer is incredibly knowledgeable and more than willing to give you a private tour.
I just remembered the name of the bike. Galimberta . He also has the only running example of a Pierce Arrow with an inline 4.
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One thing to remember is that to us, the North American and European motorcycle markets are big - but the fact is that we are a very tiny part of the bike-buying world (under 4% of the global total - see the data below).
For every ST or GL (or Concours or FJR) sold by the J4 or Road King Superglide Chromematic Brontosaurus sold by HD in North America or Europe, somewhere else in the world, somebody is selling literally hundreds of other bikes. Some of those “someones” are Honda, Kawasaki, Yamaha and Suzuki and yes, a few Bimmers, Ducatis, Triumphs and KTMs as well (along with Royal Enfield, Hyosung and others whose names escape me) - but it ain’t Harley Davidson. If you go to India or China, or Indonesia, or anywhere in Africa, you see domestic brands and J4 bikes by the zillion on every road - but you’ll wait a looooonng time to see a Harley go by.
Here is some real data to consider (from Statista.com - 2018 Global Motorcycle Sales):
...and yes, you do see a lot of Harleys on the road - today - but their sales figures don’t lie and so give it a few years and I suspect that number will shrink as the owners age and stop riding. Finally, I suspect that a lot of the Harleys you see on the road today were sold new 5-15 years ago when things were perking along well for them (and they were failing to develop appealing new products). It’s the new sales that really matter to a business - not how many you see on the road today. That only tells you about history.
If you go to a BSA vintage rally - you will see a lot of BSAs - but just try to buy a new one....
I’m not happy about it - but the conclusion seems inescapable from the data and as some journalists say: “facts matter”.
Pete
For every ST or GL (or Concours or FJR) sold by the J4 or Road King Superglide Chromematic Brontosaurus sold by HD in North America or Europe, somewhere else in the world, somebody is selling literally hundreds of other bikes. Some of those “someones” are Honda, Kawasaki, Yamaha and Suzuki and yes, a few Bimmers, Ducatis, Triumphs and KTMs as well (along with Royal Enfield, Hyosung and others whose names escape me) - but it ain’t Harley Davidson. If you go to India or China, or Indonesia, or anywhere in Africa, you see domestic brands and J4 bikes by the zillion on every road - but you’ll wait a looooonng time to see a Harley go by.
Here is some real data to consider (from Statista.com - 2018 Global Motorcycle Sales):
- Asia-Pacific: 108.8 million (more than 82% of global motorcycle sales)
- Africa-Middle East: 10.1 million
- Central & S. America: 8.1 million
- Western Europe: 3.03 million
- North America: 1.93 million (less than 1.5% of the total)
- TOTAL: 132 million sales globally
...and yes, you do see a lot of Harleys on the road - today - but their sales figures don’t lie and so give it a few years and I suspect that number will shrink as the owners age and stop riding. Finally, I suspect that a lot of the Harleys you see on the road today were sold new 5-15 years ago when things were perking along well for them (and they were failing to develop appealing new products). It’s the new sales that really matter to a business - not how many you see on the road today. That only tells you about history.
If you go to a BSA vintage rally - you will see a lot of BSAs - but just try to buy a new one....
I’m not happy about it - but the conclusion seems inescapable from the data and as some journalists say: “facts matter”.
Pete
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ColinW1981
Site Supporter
I disagree with the "I see lots of H-D's on the road..." H-D is a lifestyle and that lifestyle is based on a group image. I see and remember the H-D moto clubs because they're loud, proud, and in a group. Seriously, when was the last time the ST1100/1300 club of Seattle went on a group ride? Oh, wait, there is no 'Seattle ST1100/1300' club. My point, the human psyche wired to danger and packs of anything are dangerous. I see and remember the H-D MC's on my rides because, well, they always run in packs. But if I think about it, I really saw far more ADV's, Dual Sports, and Sport single rider bikes than the one or two packs of H-D's I ran into. Or at least that's my story and I'm sticking to it...
I hope H-D survives COVID-19 but I have my doubts. In January I was deep into my plans to ship STacy over to Spain and then spend 6 - 8 weeks riding in the EU. I'm medically retired on a pension with a stock portfolio and my stock was doing oh so well!. Now I'm medically retired on a pension and the stock portfolio is gone...
I hope H-D survives COVID-19 but I have my doubts. In January I was deep into my plans to ship STacy over to Spain and then spend 6 - 8 weeks riding in the EU. I'm medically retired on a pension with a stock portfolio and my stock was doing oh so well!. Now I'm medically retired on a pension and the stock portfolio is gone...
I'm no fan of Harley, never been. If I won one I'd sell it and get 3 bikes I like. That being said, I don't want to see ANY bike MFG. die out.
The Reagan tariff was a hard pill to swallow. it began at 700cc not 750 like the video. Didn't stop Honda, they cut the 750's to 696cc and kept on trucking. 700 Nighthawk was a great bike. I had a 650 Nighthawk at the time, buddy had a 700. We traded all the time.
When I bought a Honda 1100 in 86 it was assembled here so no extra $$$$.
The Reagan tariff was a hard pill to swallow. it began at 700cc not 750 like the video. Didn't stop Honda, they cut the 750's to 696cc and kept on trucking. 700 Nighthawk was a great bike. I had a 650 Nighthawk at the time, buddy had a 700. We traded all the time.
When I bought a Honda 1100 in 86 it was assembled here so no extra $$$$.
Mophead
Site Supporter
Is Harley dead? Not sure. Around here all the motorcycle shops have turned into SXS shops with a few street bikes over in the corner out of sight. Still selling dirt bikes. Maybe Harley needs to build SXS vehicles for all the deer hunters. I have ridden and continue to ride with many friends who are Harley riders. Over the years we have made many miles together and everyone of them has experienced some sort of trouble while on the road. Now maybe this is because there are so many of them out there but being in my own little group of friends I keep hearing and witnessing the same problems repeat themselves over and over. Cam bearings that don't last 25K miles. Pushrods that don't push. Screamin Eagle heads that have improperly installed valve guides. Three new starters before 25K.
One good friend is about to turn 100K on his bike. It has taken three engines to get there but the frame has held up well.
I always said if Harley would build something sporty I would give it a try. Hence my Buell S2 Thunderbolt. I'm not going into details because the list would be too long and boring. Every week a new recall would arrive. That pretty white frame looks like s__t covered in oil while trying to run at any speed over 80 mph. The only good thing about that bike was the gas mileage. The rest of it was a POS. I read all the praise about how great an engineer Erik Buell was in all the motorcycle mags. When you mount a fairing on a bike that keeps breaking the frame (twice) what do you do? Finally mounted it like a JAP bike and problem solved. Erik may be a good engineer but his production skills at that time were non existent.
Just some observations of a guy who has been on many trips and witnessed the Harley ownership experience. Craigslist is littered with Harleys "just had top end rebuilt" at 30K. Why? Are the top ends that bad? Why do you have to have BIG JUGS installed even before you take delivery of your new machine. BIG JUGS allow you to keep up better with the JAP guys or is it just a status thing? Been out more than once when Harley guy could not run the speed limit into a strong headwind.
The other thing I can't get through my head is why you would continue to pour money into that dark hole after all the problems you have had in the past. There is definitely some sort of Kool-Aid that comes out of the Motor Company dealerships that keeps luring its customer back. Are they all dying out now from the Kool-Aid or just old age?
I recently bought a 2018 GoldWing used from a Harley Dealer. It had 428 miles on it. Some guy traded it in on a new Harley. Peer pressure maybe? Couldn't find a matching Pearl White doo rag? All I know is he took a bath on that deal and it saved me some bucks and I only lost 6 weeks worth of warranty from brand new.
It will be interesting to see the future of Harley and how they handle the change. Not sure $30K electric motorcycles will save them. Wait, those have been recalled and put on hold also. Probably tried to incorporate some of that Harley stator technology into the electric bike.
Harleys will be around longer than I will so there will always be an aftermarket for them even if the parent company ends up making biscuits or processing chickens for soup. Bar and Shield Biscuits? One thing for sure, change is comin'.
One good friend is about to turn 100K on his bike. It has taken three engines to get there but the frame has held up well.
I always said if Harley would build something sporty I would give it a try. Hence my Buell S2 Thunderbolt. I'm not going into details because the list would be too long and boring. Every week a new recall would arrive. That pretty white frame looks like s__t covered in oil while trying to run at any speed over 80 mph. The only good thing about that bike was the gas mileage. The rest of it was a POS. I read all the praise about how great an engineer Erik Buell was in all the motorcycle mags. When you mount a fairing on a bike that keeps breaking the frame (twice) what do you do? Finally mounted it like a JAP bike and problem solved. Erik may be a good engineer but his production skills at that time were non existent.
Just some observations of a guy who has been on many trips and witnessed the Harley ownership experience. Craigslist is littered with Harleys "just had top end rebuilt" at 30K. Why? Are the top ends that bad? Why do you have to have BIG JUGS installed even before you take delivery of your new machine. BIG JUGS allow you to keep up better with the JAP guys or is it just a status thing? Been out more than once when Harley guy could not run the speed limit into a strong headwind.
The other thing I can't get through my head is why you would continue to pour money into that dark hole after all the problems you have had in the past. There is definitely some sort of Kool-Aid that comes out of the Motor Company dealerships that keeps luring its customer back. Are they all dying out now from the Kool-Aid or just old age?
I recently bought a 2018 GoldWing used from a Harley Dealer. It had 428 miles on it. Some guy traded it in on a new Harley. Peer pressure maybe? Couldn't find a matching Pearl White doo rag? All I know is he took a bath on that deal and it saved me some bucks and I only lost 6 weeks worth of warranty from brand new.
It will be interesting to see the future of Harley and how they handle the change. Not sure $30K electric motorcycles will save them. Wait, those have been recalled and put on hold also. Probably tried to incorporate some of that Harley stator technology into the electric bike.
Harleys will be around longer than I will so there will always be an aftermarket for them even if the parent company ends up making biscuits or processing chickens for soup. Bar and Shield Biscuits? One thing for sure, change is comin'.
carpdm
Site Supporter
Great story. Thanks for posting. I've owned various HD's since 1994. They all have been good motocycles. I hope HD survives. The local dealership is family owned and they become wonderful friends.
ReSTored
Site Supporter
I might be wrong, but I've the impression that HD owners don't spend a lot of time reading or talking about other brands, and how they run and hold up long term. You don't know what you don't know. From an HD owner's perspective it could be that a bike that requires significant expense maintenance is perfectly normal as everyone you hang around with is having the same type of issues.
In upstate NY was filling up and 2 guys came over to look at my ST. They said they rode Harleys. At that time my speedo read about 115,000 and they were surprised by this. I explained that this was km, about 70,000 miles, and they were still impressed. Guy asked me if the engine had been replaced. I said no and that it was very common to see anywhere from 150,00 to 200,000 miles on the 1100 with nothing other than routine maintenance. I don't think there were any HD to Honda converts that day, but maybe they have something to think about next time a large repair bill comes in for something already fixed 2 years ago.
Well you guys may not like the ride you get from a harley, but owning their stock is exhilarating.
It's a great way to make a few bucks ... day or swing trading.
Here's today's action, so far!
It's a great way to make a few bucks ... day or swing trading.
Here's today's action, so far!
I had a 1982 VF45 Sabre (750cc). In 1986 I needed to buy another bike and I went the Honda Sabre again. This time, due to the tariff, it was 699cc.
The fact that Honda could re-tool in such a short time-frame and build a bike that got very similar quarter mile times is a testament to their engineering and manufacturing. Torque was a little down, but with cam changes, they were able to produce almost the same power at the top end. Credit where credit is due.
It's not entirely their fault, but Harley got type-cast. I'm not sure they ever could have built a new image while still retaining their loyal base. If (and it's a BIG if) they were able to build bikes significantly cheaper than the imports at equal or better quality, they might have stood a chance. Built-in-America products are expensive because Americans are accustomed to a higher standard of living and that includes the folks who build Harleys. That has a huge impact on the price of Harleys.