One thing to remember is that to us, the North American and European motorcycle markets are big - but the fact is that we are a very tiny part of the bike-buying world (under 4% of the global total - see the data below).
For every ST or GL (or Concours or FJR) sold by the J4 or Road King Superglide Chromematic Brontosaurus sold by HD in North America or Europe, somewhere else in the world, somebody is selling
literally hundreds of
other bikes. Some of those “
someones” are Honda, Kawasaki, Yamaha and Suzuki and yes, a few Bimmers, Ducatis, Triumphs and KTMs as well (along with Royal Enfield, Hyosung and others whose names escape me) - but it ain’t Harley Davidson. If you go to India or China, or Indonesia, or anywhere in Africa, you see domestic brands and J4 bikes by the zillion on every road - but you’ll wait a looooonng time to see a Harley go by.
Here is some real data to consider (from Statista.com - 2018 Global Motorcycle Sales):
- Asia-Pacific: 108.8 million (more than 82% of global motorcycle sales)
- Africa-Middle East: 10.1 million
- Central & S. America: 8.1 million
- Western Europe: 3.03 million
- North America: 1.93 million (less than 1.5% of the total)
- TOTAL: 132 million sales globally
So, as Ryan said, many years ago Harley Davidson doubled down on a very small market and now it is aging-out on them. Meanwhile they wasted that breathing room that Reagan gave them by not developing appealing new products and now they have nothing to sell to any other larger markets and they have nothing to sell to the shrinking pool of domestic (ie. North American) riders who are selecting other brands (as confirmed by Harley’s
own sales data).
...and yes, you do see a lot of Harleys on the road -
today - but their sales figures don’t lie and so give it a few years and I suspect that number will shrink as the owners age and stop riding. Finally, I suspect that a lot of the Harleys you see on the road today were sold new 5-15 years ago when things were perking along well for them (and they were failing to develop appealing new products). It’s the
new sales that really matter to a business - not how many you see on the road today. That only tells you about history.
If you go to a BSA vintage rally - you will see a lot of BSAs - but just try to buy a new one....
I’m not happy about it - but the conclusion seems inescapable from the data and as some journalists say: “
facts matter”.
Pete