How Harley-Davidson Killed Itself by FortNine

Just read a report on Fox business that said basically all new models are off the table and dealers will be recieving limited numbers of the best selling models currently made until further notice.
So they are returning to their historical standard operating model. That should work. Stick three bikes in a 10,000 square foot dealership and make a few bearded anachronisms fight over them. The consolation prize is a glossy brochure and an unlimited number of black made in China t-shirts with skulls and half-dressed women on them.
 
here's the article

I've read it but don't understand it, which either means I'm thick (high possibility) or the new CEO is an ex politician. They want people to order top end models at a premium price without customisation possibilities.
Upt'North.
 
The way I read it, it sounds like the new CEO plans to double-down on Harley's existing "CVO" strategy of low production / high price motorcycles.

In other words, doubling-down on the strategy that got them to exactly where they are.

Good luck with that.

I'm convinced after all these years that the typical Harley owner doesn't actually believe that it's the "best" motorcycle (however you want to define that). I think they buy them because they want to be known for owning a Harley.
 
I'm convinced after all these years that the typical Harley owner doesn't actually believe that it's the "best" motorcycle (however you want to define that). I think they buy them because they want to be known for owning a Harley.

I have a neighbour like this. He owns a sportster that he has no interest in riding. He rides it about 200 kilometres a year. Sometimes he'll go a couple of years without riding it, but you will never see him without a Harley shirt on and Harley socks and you can't speak to him without him working the word Harley into every sentence. He has probably spent more on Harley merchandise than he did the bike itself.
 
I've read it but don't understand it, which either means I'm thick (high possibility) or the new CEO is an ex politician. They want people to order top end models at a premium price without customisation possibilities.
Upt'North.

...or, it may be that the company is simply out of cash and cannot continue with their product development programs - and the new CEO finally developed the cajones to tell everyone that. If that is the case, the only thing they can do is build their present models with the tooling and parts they have available and hope that:
  1. the economy turns around and H-Ds demographic who like those bikes gets back to work soon;
  2. these folks have a hankering for a new scoot' and either have a wad-'o-cash or are OK with making payments <again>;
  3. these bikes sell and generate some profits to fund new product development.
I'm sure that the recent share buy-back and big pay-outs to failed executives have helped an awful lot with this whole situation. :mad:

Product development is a crucial activity - which Harley Davidson has muffed pretty badly in recent years. The problem is that no new products = dropping sales and dropping sales = reduced profits. Eventually, sales will drop to no sales = no money for new products. It is a vicious circle - but the key is sales of existing and new products. All companies go up and down in the market (that is why there are occasional promotions with incentives - to drive sales of lagging products). However, a company whose sales are dropping year-over-year is in trouble.

Quite a number of car companies have found themselves in the same pickle and while some have recovered, others did not....DeSoto (dead in '61), Studebaker (dead in '63), DeLorean & Checker (both dead in '82), American Motors (dead in '87), Oldsmobile (dead in 2004), Pontiac (dead in 2010), General Motors & Chrysler (both bankrupt in 2008-09), Fiat (nearly dead in 2012-13), Victory motorcycles (dead in 2017), Renault-Nissan (in trouble right now), etc. etc. etc.

I am not a financial wizard but I do know a thing or two about product development. New product development is beastly expensive and the hundred of millions of dollars (if not billions of dollars, in the case of a new model car with sexy new technologies) that it costs can only be funded by:
  • taking on debt (mortgaging the company and its assets - but banks are pretty conservative, particularly with companies whose press is not positive) or,
  • raising equity (i.e. stock offerings which can dilute the value of existing shares - and who wants to invest in a company that pays-off failed executives or buys-back its own shares to drive up the stock price so that the Board of Directors can get a bigger bonus - this year) or,
  • the sales of existing models - which in Harley's case have been dropping for years.
How many existing bikes are on the road now and how many stickers are on pickup truck tailgates today - simply doesn't matter at all in any of this. All that tells you is how many people drank the kool-aid in the past. The company (Harley) already has their money (and has likely already blown it on share buy-backs and executive pay-outs).

Just remember the words way above in this thread about going to a BSA vintage bike rally. You'll see lots of nice shiny bikes and nice crisp made-in-China tee-shirts - but just try to ring up the Birmingham Small Arms company and ask about purchasing a new 2020 BSA bike.
 
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...Quite a number of car companies have found themselves in the same pickle...

A comparison to car companies is what really makes me scratch my head about the whole HD situation. It's impossible to imagine GM or Ford still surviving by merely updating cars from the 60s (I'm intentionally picking an older decade because no one wants a car from the 80s). GM could have continued refreshing the 69 Camaro and a loyal following would probably still buy one. But even with an updated engine, antilock brakes, a modern suspension, etc., most car buyers would choose a modern design in a heartbeat. The modern Camaro's production numbers are a fraction of what they were in the 60's.
 
A comparison to car companies is what really makes me scratch my head about the whole HD situation. It's impossible to imagine GM or Ford still surviving by merely updating cars from the 60s (I'm intentionally picking an older decade because no one wants a car from the 80s). GM could have continued refreshing the 69 Camaro and a loyal following would probably still buy one. But even with an updated engine, antilock brakes, a modern suspension, etc., most car buyers would choose a modern design in a heartbeat. The modern Camaro's production numbers are a fraction of what they were in the 60's.

Exactly the point I am making about the imperative to develop new products.

Old products are about niche products and nostalgia (like the Camaro and the Corvette) and while, there will always be some trade in that end of the market, it couldn't possibly sustain an entire car company - and it doesn't.
 
It appears the 'new' CEO's plan is to jack up the price of the used ones by inferring 'there ain't gonna be many more', make a few of the new ones, and sell 100 new bikes a year at $100,000 each - or something like that ... :biggrin:
Yep. I can never understand why not make a decent motorcycle at a decent price. The Asians motorcycle companies have done this for decades. I have a theory that maybe Harley Davidson would never do it because if they did make a decent motorcycle at a proper price they would be accused of copying the Japanese. And you know that can't happen.
 
So H-D are not bringing new models to market.
Big mistake.

Thinking they will stumble onward selling the same over priced models to riders who are either deceased or in assisted
living is a recipe for disaster.

There will not be another bail out for them, I foresee a bleak future for them.

I wish them luck and sincerely hope they can
'pull something' off.
 
It appears the 'new' CEO's plan is to jack up the price of the used ones by inferring 'there ain't gonna be many more', make a few of the new ones, and sell 100 new bikes a year at $100,000 each - or something like that ... :biggrin:

Selling a hundred bikes / year at $100,000 is only $10 million/year. Frankly, that is chicken feed in the manufacturing world and not nearly enough to sustain a company that builds complex products.

To put that in context: I live in Windsor, ON where Chrysler builds the Dodge Grand Caravan and Chrysler Pacifica minivan / people & stuff haulers. Let's assume these vehicles sell for say....$30,000 each retail (likely low). The Windsor Assembly Plant builds about 1500 vehicles / day - six days / week for about 46 of the 52 weeks per year (in a "normal" year). That works out to:
  • 1,500 vans x 6 days = 9,000 vans / week
  • 9,000 vans x $30,000 / van = $270,000,000 ($270 million dollars/week)
  • $270 M/week x about 46 weeks/year = $12,420,000,000 / year (about $12.4 billion / year or well over $1 billion/month)
So....$12.4 billion dollars in annual retail sales (NOT profits - just sales) from one factory that builds two models for one medium sized OEM. Remember it is profits, not sales that allows a company to develop new products to sustain themselves to survive another day.

Basically, Chrysler retails sales of $10M from Windsor Assembly Plant would be achieved in about....5.3 hours or less than one shift of daily production. What would you do with all those workers and all of the physical assets the rest of the time?

Selling a few of something for a lot of money each is a very tough business model to actually carry off. Just ask Rolls Royce (now owned by BMW) and Bentley and Bugatti (both now owned by Volkswagen), Ferrari (now owned by Fiat Chrysler) and even Volvo (now owned by Chinese company Geely) and Saab (now owned by....oh yeah, they died).
 
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About 6 months ago I looked at the HD webpage and tried to sort out the various models and found what appeared to me to be endless variations on the different models and then a huge array of options that could be added to each of the variations. My impression then was that it must have been an inventory management and production nightmare to keep all of this sorted out and was it all really necessary or even profitable.

Presumably HD has detailed sales figures on what actually sells and what they are making money on. If they don't then they better figure this out quickly. Maybe Phase 1 of the recovery process is to reduce inventory across the board and consolidate production to those specific models that sell relatively well and are profitable. Maybe this buys time for them and reduced operating cost now might enable them to put more money into the development of new models, without which they will continue a slow decline until they are bankrupt.
 
Selling a hundred bikes / year at $100,000 is only $10 million/year. Frankly, that is chicken feed in the manufacturing world and not nearly enough to sustain a company that builds complex products.
But that would probably pay for the golden parachute for the current CEO when he leaves ... ;)
 
I have a neighbour like this. He owns a sportster that he has no interest in riding. He rides it about 200 kilometres a year. Sometimes he'll go a couple of years without riding it, but you will never see him without a Harley shirt on and Harley socks and you can't speak to him without him working the word Harley into every sentence. He has probably spent more on Harley merchandise than he did the bike itself.

Every once in a while we play a game when on trips. Whoever can spot a Harley rider who is NOT wearing something branded Harley does not have to buy beer that night. There are times when we can do a 10 day ride and nobody gets free beer.

Exactly the point I am making about the imperative to develop new products.
Old products are about niche products and nostalgia (like the Camaro and the Corvette) and while, there will always be some trade in that end of the market, it couldn't possibly sustain an entire car company - and it doesn't.

With the possible exception of Morgan!:rofl1:
 
As my ex once told me, they'll always be Harley's and the girls that ride them. (She explained the vibration/****contact cognitive distortion thing.)
 
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