The end is nigh......

[OkieRider]

I'll be 70 and probably riding competition only off road stuff or a convertible (too proud to ride a trike).

 

[ST1100Y]

First, a zero emission motorcycls would imply that they do not emit anything but the term never takes into account the notion of where they get their energy from.

I believe that that the hydrogen fuel cell electric cars (2021 Honda Clarity, Hyundai Nexo and Toyota Mirai) would be a much cleaner and possibly cheaper alternative...

... and consider the fact into account that you first have to build those... the whole production from mining bauxite, copper, ore, etc... and you'd have to "recycle" the old vehicles, firing up scrap furnaces...

 

[Bee]

And just to stick a big juicy cherry on top of this thread, yesterday I watched a YouTube video (Stuart Fillingham) outlining that the UK Government is trying to (depending upon your point of view) rush/hush in new legislation that will ban any modifications whatsoever to a new motorcycle post purchase. That’s no new seat, no suspension changes, no different mirrors or any aftermarket 3rd party parts. At all.

So whatever bike you buy (with your own money) has to remain exactly as it is for the life of the bike. If your bike gets damaged or needs servicing it must be original OEM parts used. Failure to do so will be an offence. Presumably a fine? The MAG (Motorcycle Action Group) have confirmed this is true and very much coming quickly down the track. I suppose the question (for me) is, do I genuinely get worked up about this or do I just ignore it and worry about it if & when it ever happens…..

 

[ibike2havefun]

Wonder if this means "all new motorcycles" from 2035 with anything older grandfathered in or does it mean any motorcycle at all.

" The British government plans to ban the sale of new petrol-powered motorcycles. From 2035 all new motorcycles must be zero emission. "

That's how I understood it.

What the policy really does is boost the market value of all pre-2035 models.

And @Sadlsor is thinking along the same lines as me, with regard to mining strategic materials controlled by uncooperative and unreliable nations. Hydrogen fuel cells, anyone?

 

[randalicious]

First, no gas powered cars.
Then, no gas powered motorcycles, but the 2 wheel vs 4 or more wheel thing sounds pretty good. Saves rubber.
Then, electric two wheeled vehicles only. No emissions, unless you count ozone and power plant exhaust/waste as an emission.
Then, the demand makes the price of electricity go sky-high.
Then, solar panel manufacturing produces massive amount of dangerous pollutants released into the soil and water table.
Then, we're all going to be dusting off the ol' Schwinn that's been dry rotting in the garage/store room for all these years.
Then, we all have to move into an ugly cheaply built huge apartment block in town so that we can just walk over to get into the closest bread line.
Then, people who are allergic to sawdust can't eat the bread.
But, there'll be plenty of rat meat to be had if you catch your own.
It's a conspiracy, I tell you!!
.
Maybe I need to have another cup of coffee and a nap to calm down.

 

[Chris09]

I know they're better now but I think one of the best ones I've been involved with has been a solar panel installation where the justification for the project was that the capital cost would be recovered through energy savings after only twelve years.

The only problem was the manufacturer recommended that they be replaced every ten years.

 

[tjhiggin]

Then, we're all going to be dusting off the ol' Schwinn that's been dry rotting in the garage/store room for all these years.

"Pedal bikes are back again
But there's no oil to grease the chain" -- The Lonely Boys, "Take It Easy," 1979

 

[rcb]

We can barely produce enough electricity as it is. This push is doomed to fall on its face and a lot of innocent people will pay the price both literally and figuratively. The whole CO2 issue is a sham to begin with. It's all about putting more money into the hands of the wealthy in combination with control.

Funny enough, I don't mind electric vehicles. But I believe we need to spread our energy resources, not shove everything back into one form. Electric is nice for some things, but anyone who lives in the country knows how often they have to fire up a gas or diesel generator to get by for a couple days. Now we want to put several times the same electric load onto the system when many places already have rolling brown outs and black outs.

But no one ever accused politicians of being smart.

 

[ad.hom]

Lots of interesting opinions & thoughts here.

At one point the world was lit by whale oil. Things change.

This is probably the most salient point. That, and the fact that my father instilled into me the ethos of "quit arguing, be part of the solution, and you'll be happier."

they are stymied in trying to come close to the energy density of petroleum.

This, to me, is the problem. The obvious answer that most don't seem to realise, is that we could look to flip the situation - I wonder what would happen if sales taxes were diverted to usage taxes. No tax to buy fuel or vehicles, but you get taxed by using them.

Most people don't like paying taxes, even if they're affordable. So people would probably choose to use less energy, or at least, use it less quickly. If we can incentivise that, we don't need to match the energy density of petroleum products.

What troubles me at a very basic level is being told what, where, and when I can own, purchase, operate machines, and control my activity.

My highschool Geography teacher, Mr Price, was a man I fondly remember for two reasons - his humour, and his views on freedom. I remember the debate well - one kid in the class was misbehaving, and rather than reprimanding them for the "you can't tell me to do sh--, I have the right to freedom" - he calmly replied "how free do you all actually think you are?"

He then went on very well to illustrate that we cannot simply buy whatever music we want to buy. We also cannot buy whatever music is made. We can only buy the music that someone else is choosing to sell. Of course, we're free to make our own music, but for that, we need to put the effort into learning how to play instruments etc.

That speech probably resonated more with me than the other kids listening, because of my old man's views.

What's going to happen when the electrical grids fall apart?

For close on two decades, I've been unhappy with UK politics and steadily working on plans to emigrate. The last 8 years, I lived somewhere that didn't have natural gas, and the electricity supply would randomly cut out. I had an oil tank, an open fire, and a diesel generator. For the last few months I've been living on a farm with bio-fuel heating. In the future, at the moment, I'm considering "van life" while still continuing to work in IT.

The problem isn't really the grid dependency - it's the other idiots that will run around in the dark like headless chickens because they can't access Facebook.

As for the topic - lets say the UK ban sales of new petrol bikes in 2035. A year or 2 before that, I can buy a petrol bike and continue to ride it as long as I can maintain it. I've driven a Tesla and was impressed, but we don't have the infrastructure for it to be practical. Maybe the infrastructure problem will be fixed in 14 years, maybe it won't. If it is, I'm interested in electric bikes... but also, working in IT, the pandemic demonstrated very well that we don't need to commute... so I might be riding in an all electric bus instead...

Sure, this is all about "me" rather than being helpful to others in society, but people have a long history of proving to be idiots (myself included).

 

[ChucksKLRST]

PS: Once the government realizes how much tax revenue they are going to lose from fuel taxes, they might think twice about banning internal combustion engines.

Already there has been talk about taxing miles driven. This is how the Gov will regain revenue from Vehicles. Big Brother will be watching you.

 

[red one]

... and consider the fact into account that you first have to build those... the whole production from mining bauxite, copper, ore, etc... and you'd have to "recycle" the old vehicles, firing up scrap furnaces...
[

What the big lie is all you are doing is trading pollution for pollution. As you run your electric motor powered vehicle you are producing ozone. Which I thought was a no no. Every time you charge your electric vehicle you are producing emissions. There are those who say there will be more electric magnetic field pollution tied to all these motors introduced into the enviornment. There is net zero gain here but the lie goes on.

 

[Andrew Shadow]

PS: Once the government realizes how much tax revenue they are going to lose from fuel taxes, they might think twice about banning internal combustion engines.

The most efficient department in any government always seems to be the department that conceives new ways to generate tax revenues, and they have already figured this one out. Various governments have already begun looking in to taxing miles driven as opposed to taxing fuel purchased, simply because projected EV sales will significantly reduce fuel tax revenue. There has already been a mandate in Europe that the GPS system that is built-in to every vehicle that is produced, whether it is accessible to the driver or nor, must be functional and can not be disabled. First step down the tracking of miles driven path?

but also, working in IT, the pandemic demonstrated very well that we don't need to commute... so I might be riding in an all electric bus instead...

We don't need to commute if we have the luxury of working from home. Not so easy for the brick layer, plumber, the grocery store clerk, the gas station attendant, the toilet paper factory worker, etc., etc., etc.. The people who fill these jobs usually live farther out of the town centre because what these jobs pay does not afford them the financial means to live in town. What the pandemic showed is that society can't function without people doing these jobs. Most of them, at least at current pricing, can not afford an electric vehicle either. How will they get to work to do the jobs that we have learned society can not function with out? Effective and affordable public transit will need to be drastically expanded to accommodate many of these people and where they live. Public transit in to rural areas in not affordable or effective in my experience. Time will tell I guess.

I wonder how much of this will be the result of becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. Designing, planning and preparation for the production of a new vehicle starts about seven years before it is for sale. Many jurisdictions are looking at either 2030 or 2035 when bans on fuel powered vehicles will take effect. That possibly means that no new ICE vehicles will be in the works starting as early as either 2023 or 2028, not that far away. Several manufacturers have already announced that they will very shortly switch to electric vehicle production only. In the not to distant future, there may not be much choice if you do want to purchase an ICE vehicle.

Further to that, if this looming ban remains on the books, if a person knows that there will not be any ICE vehicles sold after 2030/2035, will they be willing to buy one five years prior to that date knowing that support for that vehicle will possibly begin disappearing, and also knowing that it may be very difficult to sell it several years down the road because no one will want it, and therefore it won't have any resale value left in it?

What about fuel availability? How long before entrepreneurs will no longer be willing to risk money building new gas stations or renovating old ones because of this proposed ban? If they become convinced that people won't be allowed to buy ICE vehicles, they won't spend money on gas stations. As gas stations begin to disappear, more people will be scared in to buying electric vehicles, which will cause more gas stations to disappear, which will scare more people in to buying electric vehicles .......

 

[Chris09]

The overall of it sometimes seems to be what happens with every technological advance since bronze, - here's a new technology that can advance civilization, so instead how can I jam it up... you, know, but for the greater good.

They'll never freeze to death in an electric car in Grande Prairie, well, I suppose you shouldn't be living there, they don't quite get any of that or many other parts of the real world.

But the deciders of what's good for everyone invariably were born and raised in the Built Environment, they've got an answer for everything until you ask them how the weather is where they are, then there's a pause while they look for that big rectangular thing on one of the perimeter walls that isn't a monitor [at least they were told it's not a monitor] or do a quick google search.

As far as freedom, some of them have never known freedom by any definition[at least not anything that can be arrived at short of exhaustive mental gymnastics], other than the meagre group of choices afforded them by the architects and administrators of their own compact insulated world,

As crazy as I sound, I eventually get assigned to work in almost some odd eighty different highrise and housing configurations, and it becomes evident that developers know that people conform remarkably well, especially as they get younger, the only problem I have is when they decide everyone else should too, just because, well you see if I don't have any of that... plus, even though they don't have a plan, it's good for the environment!

Alright I've had my hour, geez I'm glad I got that off my chest, same time next week, can I go back to my room now?

Buy a Leaf!!!

 

[diferg]

... and consider the fact into account that you first have to build those... the whole production from mining bauxite, copper, ore, etc... and you'd have to "recycle" the old vehicles, firing up scrap furnaces...

You're right @ST1100Y, aren't we doing that now? It has always been if you cut a piece of wood you have to clean up the sawdust and get rid of the scrap. What alternative do you suggest? I just think fuel cell cars and the process of building them, procuring the materials and recycling scrap will be better than than the same steps involved with battery powered cars.

 

[ad.hom]

We don't need to commute if we have the luxury of working from home.

Emphasis added, and yes, I agree, that's why I said that I was only talking for myself, not for wider society.

I do my bit, and live my life the way I want, it ain't too bad. Today the 17yr old and I had a 7 mile walk to collect groceries. Along the way we talked about things like why I think our government are idiots for not imposing another lockdown already, as well as talking to him about his chemistry homework etc.

None of that helps anyone else, but I enjoy it.

 

[ST1100Y]

You're right @ST1100Y, aren't we doing that now? It has always been if you cut a piece of wood you have to clean up the sawdust and get rid of the scrap. What alternative do you suggest?

How about breaking the loop of "needing" a new phone every three months, a new computer and TV every six months and a new car every two years?

A provoking concept though...

 

[jrp]

Revenue loss from gas taxes is a real issue.

With EVs on the way, what comes after the gas tax?

With a gas tax, the more you drive, the more you contribute to road maintenance

driving.ca

State governments in the US have already figured that one out. They attach a surcharge to your annual vehicle registration if it is an EV to make up for the lost gas tax revenue.

 

[red one]

How about breaking the loop of "needing" a new phone every three months, a new computer and TV every six months and a new car every two years?

A provoking concept though...

Broken that loop decades ago as my motorcycle bought new is now 21 years old. Same for my old 16 year old Toyota. 14 year old Samsung tv so yeah I'm on the band wagon. But now that you mention it come Jan 1 2022 they are going to shut down the 3G network forcing me to give up my 10 year old flip phone....now thats cruel

 

[rwthomas1]

I have two friends with Tesla's, I've been in them and driven them. They are nice. However they are expensive. Last year I had to commit a substantial amount to repair my old commuter car. I looked had at new and used replacements, including electric. I couldn't make the numbers work for the electrics. The quickest payoff I could see was 8.5 yrs. It just doesn't make financial sense. Fuel needs to be much more expensive for it to make sense.

One of the Tesla owners just got it. It cost $54K to purchase. He justified it since he had spent $28K on a solar system and now is a net producer of electricity, and the power company will only credit him partially for his production. The solar system was partially subsidized with our tax dollars, btw.

Now his solar system is pretty neat, it does have a large battery that will keep the essential systems in his house running for 3 days or so without the solar panels. Any sunshine at all and the battery is topped off, and in theory, he could be off the grid indefinitely. But look what it cost....

Now clearly he has the means to do this. I don't see this achievable by a large segment of the population. He's a senior airline pilot, and his wife a Dr. Now maybe the technology cost will come down. Plasma flat screen TVs used to be $6K. Now they are less than $600 for way better tech. So maybe.

My concern is that they push the technology too hard and there are simply no viable options for many activities. It could easily kill many segments of the economy. How bad the result will be is anyone's guess.

RT

 

[huntingdog]

If you calculate emissions, you must include the manufacturing process including raw materials, the mining of raw materials AND the ultimate recycling of the vehicles. From what I have read, the batteries can only be partially recycled . The advantage of ev's is not nearly as great as we are being led to believe..

You have to add the production and delivery of the electricity as well, especially when most of the electricity comes from thermal power plants burning fossil fuels and producing emissions.